The crude overall death rate or case fatality rate in other countries will be exaggerated as they have only tested people with more severe illness and not all contacts. In Italy so far the case fatality rate is 5.8% Rough estimates are in Spain 2.8% , 2.1% and in the UK 1.7%.
These are not true mortality rates, which can only be worked out at a later stage.
While in Singapore, Scandinavia and Germany they are more in line with normal flu.
These figures are rough estimates, during an evolving epidemic, because of the time lag between diagnosis and outcome. Also milder cases are never tested.
The overall mortality rate for Hubei Province in China where the epidemic started, but has now tailed off to a handful of new cases a day, stands at about 4.5%. Is is thought that once control measures are lifted it could re surge again until about 80% of the population becomes infected. The other 20% being naturally immune. There is no evidence yet that warm weather will control this virus. It could go on all summer in the Northern Hemisphere.
It took Hubei province about 10 weeks of lock down to control the epidemic.
Sources for statistics WHO and European Centre of Disease Control
There are two reasons for low mortality in highly efficient countries . Testing more asymptomatic contacts reveals more people who have very mild illness and better contact tracing and isolation and care once diagnosed will result in less contagion and fewer deaths.
Countries with higher mortality do fewer tests and pick up less severe carrier of the virus, and need more radical population restrictions to control the epidemic.
Better prepared countries do not have to take lock down measure as they quickly identify contacts and isolate them before they can spread the virus into the community.
The UK has been criticised for its strategy which is that they think about 80% of the population will get the virus anyway so they should let it spread naturally and develop a population immunity.
The Spanish government will not reveal the mortality figures broken down by age in Spain.
They have told journalist to ask the individulal Autonomous Comunities.
But looking at Italian figures it is very much confined to the over 60’s
Age in years 0 to 19 zero deaths in sufferers of Covid-19 coronavirus.
20 to 39 0.1% one in a thousand chance of dying if you get the virus.
40 to 49 0.1% chance of dying if you get the virus. This is same risk as normal flu.
Then the rates start to creep up from age 50.
50 to 59 0.6%, 60 to 69 2.7%, 70 to 79 6.9%, 80 to 89 16.9%, 90 years + 19%
The overall death rate for all ages combined is 5.8% Source Italian Health Institute
They have laboratories capable of testing large numbers of people rapidly.
They have not had to implement widespread population control like the rest of China, Italy and now Spain.
They have told journalist to ask the individulal Autonomous Comunities.
But looking at Italian figures it is very much confined to the over 60’s
Age in years 0 to 19 zero deaths in sufferers of Covid-19 coronavirus.
20 to 39 one in a thousand chance of dying if you get the virus.
40 to 49 0.6% chance of dying if you get the virus.
50 to 59 2.7%, 60 to 69 2.7%, 70 to 79 6.9%, 80 to 89 16.9%, 90 years + 19%
The overall death rate for all ages combined is 5.8% Source Italian Health Institute